[You can skip this post If you already closely follow Iowa politics. It’s mostly meant for non-Iowa readers and particularly former Iowans.]
Red Iowa is very much in play this year.
First, a little history. The Iowa of my youth in the ‘60s was solidly Republican. Then it purpled and many Iowans voted for both Senators Tom Harkin (D) and Chuck Grassley (R). Republican Terry Branstad served two long stints as governor, sandwiched around Democrats Tom Vilsack and Chet Culver (1999 to 2011). Iowa launched Barack Obama in 2008 and then trended red again, with a blip when Democrats gained three of Iowa’s four Congressional seats in Trump’s first midterm, in 2018. Then back to solid red under Governor Kim Reynolds, including a current and impressive voter registration edge: 39% R to 29% D. Which brings us to now.
Of the top six races this year — Governor, US Senate, and four House seats — four are open seats and all are held by Republicans. Democrats have a decent shot at five of the six.
Iowa state auditor and currently the only Democrat state-wide elected, Rob Sand is running a highly unusual and promising race for governor. He’s young, smart, savvy, and articulate. Sand has held scores of town halls and is currently on a 100 town hall tour. Each begins with Sand leading the group in singing America the Beautiful. He then asks who in the room is a Republican and then an independent, and encourages the room to applaud both. He runs against both parties, which irritates many Democrats. His signs and logo are green and orange and he repeats: “not redder or bluer, better and truer.”
Sand emphasizes how far Iowa has fallen under a decade of one-party, Republican rule. After being among the top three states in education (our state quarter image is a school), we’ve sunk to the lower half. Iowa scrapes the bottom in economic growth but leads in cancer growth, which has elevated the issue of ag-polluted water. Public schools are being drained by a voucher program and the state owns a $1.3 billion budget deficit. Thanks to tariffs, farmers struggle and farm bankruptcies are rising. Our college grads leave and the only reason that there is any population growth is immigrants, or least that used to be the case. So Sand says “it’s time to rotate the crops.” He also checks typically Republican boxes as a hunter and fisherman.
Sand’s opponent, Zach Lahn (pronounced “lane”), won a close primary against an incumbent congressman endorsed by Trump and Branstad. Lahn is a product of the Koch machine and has lived more in Kansas than Iowa. He has children from a prior marriage there and flies back and forth in his own plane. Sand and the Dems are having a field day with tape of Lahn saying that he’ll “spend as much time in Iowa as possible.” Sand is also fond of noting that he has three times more Republican donors than Lahn. Lahn has undercut two strong Democratic issues by emphasizing clean water and attacking big ag. Lahn’s lieutenant governor candidate also carries substantial baggage with farm operations engaged in several legal battles over six-figure unpaid bills. This race is close; one poll has Sand up by four.
For the US Senate seat vacated by retiring Joni Ernst, Democrat Josh Turek faces current IA-02 Congresswoman Ashley Hinson. Turek’s life story is compelling. After his father was exposed to Agent Orange in Vietnam, Josh was born with spina bifida and has spent his life in a wheelchair. He won Olympic gold for the USA in wheelchair basketball and his signature image is hoisting himself backwards up steps to knock doors, dragging his wheelchair. He also touts his working class roots and winning a state house seat in red Council Bluffs.
Hinson is a strong candidate as a former Waterloo news anchor with a solid base in northeast Iowa. She’s attractive, will have a ton of money, and will likely be the better debater. There’s no daylight between her and Trump. This race is a stretch for Turek.
Anchored by the Des Moines metro and reaching south, IA-03 is the strongest flip opportunity among Iowa House seats. It’s an R+2 district, the least Republican in the state. Incumbent Zach Nunn is a combat Air Force veteran and he and his wife and six kids take a great picture. He has also refused to hold any town halls and sticks like flypaper to Trump. The Democrats nominated state senator Sarah Trone Garriott, a Lutheran pastor with an empathetic presence and a record of beating solid Republican candidates. Much will depend here on Democratic turnout in the metro.
In IA-01, southeast Iowa, Democrat Christina Bohannan, a UI law professor, challenges incumbent Marionette Miller-Meeks for the third cycle in a row. All have been close, with Bohannan losing by only 799 votes in ’24. Miller-Meeks has not been in total lockstep with Trump and that plays both ways. This district is R+4 but Bohannan reminds her audiences that thousands of people who voted for Trump in 2024 also voted for her. The Cook Political Report rates both IA-3 and IA-01 as toss-ups.
State representative Lindsay James from Dubuque carries the Democratic banner in IA-02 in northeast Iowa. A self-described fiery redhead, James is also a pastor and chaplain. I’ve attended many political fundraisers and heard many candidate pitches. James’s is among the best. Her opponent, Joe Mitchell, is a wealthy and overtly ambitious carpetbagger. He had been a state rep in southeast Iowa and moved into his family’s Clear Lake vacation home for this race. IA-02 is also R+4 but James has a winning presence. This race is “lean R” per Cook.
IA-04 in northwest Iowa is not winnable; it’s just too red at R+15.
Democrats in Ankeny, where I live and knock doors, are also cautiously confident that our three outstanding and hard working state house and senate candidates can prevail, which would flip two seats. Our candidates report high levels of receptivity and enthusiasm as they knock doors. Flipping state legislative seats is important to ensure that Republicans don’t have supermajorities to override Rob Sand vetoes.
We’re still more than three months out and much can and will happen. The Iowa Democratic Party and Sand campaign are mounting an extraordinary “coordinated campaign” ground game against Republican money and voter registration advantages. Several factors do appear to align with Democratic prospects: dissatisfaction with the state of Iowa, Democratic enthusiasm, appealing candidates, Trump disapproval, and pain inflicted on the farm community. How many of the six races go to Democrats will depend on the height of the hoped-for blue wave.
We need to roll up our sleeves, put on our walking shoes, and get to work. 108 days to go.